Finance: Research, Policy and Anecdotes

Brexit trigger - how much cake is left?

With the triggering of Article 50, the easy part is ending and the hard part is starting – after the Theresa May’s cabinet realised that after all you cannot have your cake and eat it as promised by Boiris during the Brexit campaign, the fight is on over what little cake is left for the UK.

 

What does this imply for banking and finance?  There are two major trends – one is for financial institutions finding a home for the EU operations with different financial centres competing with each other and new champions crowned every month – yesterday it was Dublin, today it is Frankfurt, tomorrow maybe Amsterdam. Most analysts agree that there will not be one financial centre replacing London in the short- to medium-term and London will continue to function as global financial centre, though most likely on a smaller scale.  The second trend is a race against the time for the UK government in defining the status of London with respect to EU regulation and access. The longer the uncertainty, the stronger the exodus. The levers in this negotiations are more on the European and the British side, as are the incentives to delay this process as long as possible.

 

Will the UK regain its sovereignty?  It seems naive to think that any country (maybe bar US and China) can extract itself completely from the jurisdiction of international agencies and courts and it seems that the British government is slowly realizing that. And it seems that certain part of the UK are happier being subject to Brussels jurisdictions than Westminster jurisdiction. 

 

What does the Article 50 trigger imply for the EU? It is another milestone in the long-running European crisis and another wake-up call for the renewal of the European Union, as discussed in this eBook, with contributions from both political scientists and economists: New eBook: Quo vadis?  Identity, Policy and Future of the European Union.  On an upside, EU member governments seem to have realized the need for renewal; it is critical that this renewal comes from the nation states and is not another Brussels project.

Will 29 March 2017 be a day for the history books?  I very much doubt - there have been and will be more important dates - 23 June 2016 and the actual Brexit date.  But it reminds everyone what is at stake for the (still) United Kingdom and the European Union and hopefully helps focus minds.